Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 181.672535 221.809547 272.125068 341.159506 435.591030 5.636632e+02 7.568623e+02
2025-02-23 135.423604 180.685081 245.043431 347.592614 516.127677 8.018631e+02 1.376779e+03
2025-03-02 106.993846 150.968796 218.830703 338.717632 564.488525 1.023473e+03 2.229139e+03
2025-03-09 88.881145 130.604121 199.013546 329.904118 605.415874 1.262871e+03 3.515878e+03
2025-03-16 75.478520 114.303573 180.941780 316.633971 629.426688 1.487953e+03 5.310448e+03
2025-03-23 71.071393 111.705771 185.565234 348.594129 773.799241 2.206796e+03 1.221924e+04
2025-03-30 64.451501 103.918043 178.578348 353.219446 853.223055 2.847382e+03 2.475257e+04
2025-04-06 60.008634 99.237922 176.493350 368.378940 975.934239 3.927105e+03 6.773420e+04
2025-04-13 54.502810 91.679243 166.916601 361.743038 1025.110636 4.783349e+03 1.699963e+05
2025-04-20 52.876220 91.328925 172.563026 397.551778 1263.414288 7.789933e+03 3.001905e+06
2025-04-27 50.961623 90.078606 175.913452 428.658963 1522.742793 1.279717e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 48.808964 88.003875 176.897568 453.369440 1790.017733 2.111454e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 46.165704 84.722442 174.805804 469.463814 2054.706122 3.563995e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 43.556752 81.189951 171.471536 480.636586 2322.197800 6.243452e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 40.303447 75.824696 162.399127 467.261723 2403.783942 8.937574e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 37.431601 71.007092 154.011145 453.816236 2476.173997 1.302136e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 34.655088 66.120637 144.686945 433.603457 2469.120741 1.724689e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 34.341329 66.900870 151.196703 482.515242 3246.209696 1.050901e+06 NaN
2025-06-22 32.784236 64.555013 148.369481 489.651183 3620.411222 5.234040e+06 NaN
2025-06-29 31.770558 63.406714 148.876566 513.136825 4313.976900 7.201832e+09 NaN
2025-07-06 30.030779 60.301394 142.974893 502.837754 4498.709773 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.857743 61.070574 149.185390 558.750009 6139.640942 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 29.450216 61.197873 153.430995 607.974883 8166.767788 NaN NaN